Finnish material flow analysis and scenario work on the use of natural resources in support of circular economy agreement


In April 2021, Finnish Government set a resolution on the Strategic Programme for Circular Economy. The basis of the resolution is a vision that Finnish economy will be based on a carbon-neutral circular economy society in 2035. The resolution restricts the use of renewable natural resources in Finland so that the total consumption of domestic primary ram materials in 2035 will not exceed the situation in 2015. Natural resources used for manufacturing export products are not covered by the objective. In addition, the productivity of resources must be doubled by 2035 from the situation in 2015 and the circular material use rate (CMU) must also be doubled by 2035 (was 7 percentage in 2018).

Finnish Government is promoting these natural resources targets by a low-carbon circular economy agreement. Industry associations, companies, municipalities, and other operators may join the agreement. The aim is that they will make voluntary commitments to implement the natural resources targets of the Circular Economy Programme.

Finnish material flow analysis and scenario work on the use of natural resources in support of circular economy agreement (1/2022–10/2023) project aims to build the capacity to monitor the objectives of the Circular Economy Programme and to strengthen the knowledge base for the planning of circular economy agreements of various actors, for example by identifying the most potential circular economy measures and to promote decision-making. The calculation and modeling systems produced by the project will contribute to the monitoring of the use of natural resources and the assessment of the impact of circular economic activities.

The aims of the project are

  1. To produce a calculation framework for material flows in Finland, which monitors the development of key material indicators (especially Raw Material Consumption, RMC). A time series for the years 2000–2019 will be produced.
  2. To conduct scenarios for the years 2035 and 2050 on the development of Finland's material footprint and its effects on the environment and the economy.
  3. To provide information on possible circular economy measures/actions and their impact on resource use, the environment and the economy, supporting the different actors in their design of their circular economy agreements.

The project is implemented by Finnish Environmental Institute SYKE (coordinator), VTT Technical Research Centre, Natural Resources Institute Luke, Geological Survey of Finland GTK and Statistics Finland. The project is funded by a Circular Economy Programme together with implementing research organizations.


The project consists of five work packages (WPs):

WP 1: Finnish material flow calculation system and production of RMC indicator

WP 2: Environmental impacts of the extraction and use of natural resources and regional reviews

WP 3: Production of a scenario tool for the use of natural resources (ENVIMATscen) and preparation of scenarios for the raw material use

The use of natural resources will be examined using three different scenarios, namely

  1.  A business as usual (BAU) or a baseline scenario based for known strategic decisions and actions by 2035,
  2.  A circular economy target scenario, aiming at achieving the objectives of the Circular Economy Programme by 2035,
  3.  A sustainability scenario, implementing the sustainable use of natural resources in a context of carbon neutral Finland in 2035 and thereafter, and towards a carbon negative circular economy as part of the EU´s climate neutrality target in 2050.

WP 4: Generating data to support circular economy agreements and communicating of the results

WP 5: Project management and administration


Published 2022-06-28 at 14:43, updated 2022-06-28 at 14:42