Home > Research & development > Research and development projects > Projects > Adapt-FIRST: Adapting to climate change risks in Finland: an Impact Response surface STudy Adapt-FIRST: Adapting to climate change risks in Finland: an Impact Response surface STudy + Show information - Hide information Basic project information Start year 2020 End year 2024 Stage Ongoing Person in charge Timothy Carter Other persons Anu Akujärvi, Nasim Fazel, Stefan Fronzek, Daniel Haaranen, Juho Jakkila, Virpi Junttila, Anna Lipsanen, Nina Pirttioja, Noora Veijalainen Financiers Academy of Finland Partners University of Helsinki, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Foundation for Applied Information Technology in Environment, Agriculture and Global Changes (Romania), Cranfield University (UK), National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan) The Adapt-FIRST project seeks to develop a new risk framework for climate change adaptation at regional level in Finland. In close collaboration with expert and stakeholder partners, it advances methods of climate change impact and adaptation assessment by applying impact models across sectors within a standard analytical framework for representing three aspects of potential relevance for policy: (i) sensitivity: examining the sensitivity of the sectors to changing climate for readily observable indicators; (ii) urgency: estimating risks of approaching or exceeding key thresholds of impact under alternative scenarios as a basis for determining urgency of response; and (iii) response: determining the effectiveness of potential adaptation and mitigation responses. By working with observable indicators, the approach is also amenable to long-term monitoring as well as evaluation of the success of adaptation, where this too can be simulated.News 2023-01-18: New approach for climate risk assessment supports decision-making under uncertainty 2021-02-17: How may global changes affect the future of Finland's agricultural and food economy? 2020-11-26: Scientists assess framework for depicting different futures under changing climate Project publications Carter T.R. and S. Fronzek (2022) A model-based response surface approach for evaluating climate change risks and adaptation urgency. In: Kondrup C. et al. (eds) Climate Adaptation Modelling, Springer Climate. Springer, Cham., p. 67-75, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_9 Fronzek, S., Y. Honda, A. Ito, J.P. Nunes, N. Pirttioja, J. Räisänen, K. Takahashi, E. Terämä, M. Yoshikawa and T.R. Carter (2022) Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces. Climate Risk Management 38, 100466, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2022.100466 Nendel, C., M. Reckling, P. Debaeke, S. Schulz, M. Berg-Mohnicke, J. Constantin, S. Fronzek, M. Hoffmann, S. Jakšić, K.C. Kersebaum, A. Klimek-Kopyra, H. Raynal, C. Schoving, T. Stella and R. Battisti (2022) Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe. Global Change Biology, doi:10.1111/gcb.16562 Lehtonen, H.S., J. Aakkula, S. Fronzek, J. Helin, M. Hildén, S.M. Huttunen, M. Kaljonen, J. Niemi, T. Palosuo, N. Pirttioja, P. Rikkonen, V. Varho and T.R. Carter (2021) Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture. Regional Environmental Change 21, 7, doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2 O'Neill, B.C., Carter, T.R., Ebi, K. et al. (2020) Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 1074-1084 , doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0 Greschkowiak, A. (2020) Prospects for oat production under a changing climate in Finland. Master's thesis, University of Augsburg, Geography, pp. 101, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.26542.64322 Published 2020-08-18 at 16:40, updated 2023-01-19 at 9:19 Suomeksi In English Topic: climate, climate change, climate policy, land use, Support for climate policy, environmental impacts Target group: citizen Share: Feedback for the person in charge Print this page